President Ortega?

Dear International Living Reader,

The Nicaragua elections are tomorrow, and rumors and anxiety among investors in this country have peaked...although the level of concern among the locals seems to be much lower than it was five years ago in the weeks leading up to the 2001 vote. Some of the latest polls show Daniel Ortega leading the cast of presidential hopefuls. One reports that about 30% of the voters say (to the pollsters, anyway) that he's their guy. Another poll has him at 34.4%. He needs 35% and a lead of at least 5% over the guy in second place to win the election outright.

Could Ortega win? That's the question of the hour...the one we're asked in these offices dozens of times every day at this point. Many find it unlikely that he could get the 35% and think, therefore, that there will likely be a run-off election between Ortega and Montealegre, who is expected to come in second, with between 23% and 27% of the vote.

Ortega has run in the past three Nicaraguan presidential elections...and he's lost every time. Could fourth time out be the charm for him? We'll know within hours. Should he win...ah, well, then the postulating gets interesting. Could a President Ortega mean the end of economic prosperity for Nicaragua? I have no better way of knowing the future than the next guy...but if I had to bet money, I'd put my greenbacks on: Probably not.

In a recent press conference in Managua, Ortega promised "no further confiscations." That, probably, is the biggest concern as we head into Election Day in this country. Ortega seems to be saying...don't worry, amigo, your investment is safe.

Can you believe him?

Well...can you believe any politician?

A Nicaraguan lady I met recently in London made the point that Ortega is not, regardless of his rhetoric, an hombre for the working class. Ortega, she reminded me, entered office a poor man and left office one of the richest in the country. She believes Ortega will stick to the path of greatest riches.

Should Ortega win...will he derail this country from its free-market course? Will he respect property ownership rights? Again, I have no idea, but my new Nicaraguan friend in London makes sense to me. Ortega and friends are wealthy men these days, many property developers themselves. Destroying foreign investors' faith in this country and its prospects for growth could mean the end of the property value spikes of the past dozen years. Ortega and cronies would suffer along with everyone else.

My bet is that the greatest consequence of an Ortega win could be a period of (maybe severe) uncertainty, even paralysis among foreign, especially U.S. investors. Growth in the country, especially property value growth, could slow down, maybe stall.

Which, in my mind, could signal a buying opportunity for speculators.

In fact, the more I think about it...the more I half-think: Go Ortega.

Your humble, completely unqualified Nicaraguan political pundit,

Lief Simon
Real Estate Editor, International Living

P.S. One way or another...President Ortega or no...International Living will be hosting its next Real Estate Tour in Nicaragua Nov. 13 to 17. If Ortega loses...as I said, could be a speculator's buy signal. If he wins, the world will rejoice in the nation's seeming commitment to the free market. Either way, seems to me like a good time to plan to be in the country. Full details here.