Dean is Gentler Than Expected with the Yucatán, But He's Not Done Yet

It is just about 3 p.m. on Tuesday as I write this. The wind is blowing a wee bit stronger than normal and although there is a heavy cloud cover, the sun is shining brightly enough to make this a spectacularly beautiful day. It rained during the night as we slept, but not enough to disturb us or to disrupt daily activities here.

I am happy to report that Mérida-where I live-has been spared any ill affects from Hurricane Dean. Some parts of the Yucatán peninsula have not been as lucky, although Dean's destruction has actually been (so far) far less than what was anticipated.

The Yucatán peninsula is comprised of three states: Quintana Roo, Yucatán, and Campeche. Quintana Roo is home to Mexico's Caribbean coast (which encompasses the stretches known as the Riviera Maya and the Costa Maya) from north of Cancún to Chetumal and the border with Belize. The northern portion of the peninsula is where you will find Yucatán state. Campeche state comprises the southeastern portion of the peninsula.

Dean made landfall about 4:00 a.m. near Majahual, the heart of the Costa Maya and a popular port with cruise liners, located about 40 miles east-northeast of Chetumal and the Belize border. Other major towns near here are Bacalar and Felipe Carrillo Puerto. Otherwise, this is a fairly sparsely populated area. Had the hurricane made landfall farther north in the Riviera Maya and nearer Cancún, as was initially expected, the devastation could have been far worse.

The saving grace of Yucatán
Near Felipe Carrillo Puerto and further inland, it is feared that the region's agriculture has been hit hard. Square in the storm's path, this area produces sugar cane, chili peppers and honey. One saving grace of the Yucatán peninsula during a storm like this is its geological make-up. It's a porous limestone shelf with no above-ground rivers or lakes that can flood. (Instead there are underground rivers, lakes, sinkholes and caves.) And there are no hills to speak of, so mudslides aren't much of a problem either.

Where next?
As I write, however, a weakened Dean is somewhere in the southern part of the peninsula, most likely over Campeche state. IL staff member Glynna Prentice is weathering out the storm in her home in the state capital, Campeche town. From all reports, the storm should be at its worst there right about now.

Although Dean has lost intensity, the state of Campeche remains on red alert. Cities there expected to be hit hardest include Calkiní, Hopelchén, Champotón and Ciudad del Carmen. There, 3,800 agents (state and federal) are on duty to face the storm and help with cleanup.

So far, no fatalities have been reported in Mexico. It is absolutely amazing that this Category 5 storm has (as reported so far) been as gentle with the Yucatán as it has. Certainly, there will be many financial losses and many people will be temporarily homeless thanks to Dean's destruction, especially on Mexico's Caribbean coast and in Belize and parts of Honduras and Guatemala. Heavy rains spawned by Dean can cause deadly mudslides and flooding, as was experienced after Hurricanes Mitch and others.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon, in Ottawa for a summit with President Bush and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, has cut short his visit there and is returning to Mexico today to travel to the those parts of Mexico hit hardest by Dean.

Still in Dean's path
Parts of Mexico are still in Dean's path. Projections now are for Dean to exit the Yucatán peninsula and tear its way across the Gulf of Mexico. Pemex, Mexico's state-run oil company, has abandoned its offshore rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, evacuated more than 14,000 workers, and shut down production in this, its main oil-producing region where 80% of its oil is extracted. Temporarily closing the more-than 400 undersea wells that feed the rigs will mean a production loss of 2.7 million barrels of oil and 2.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day.

It is expected that Dean will gain velocity as it passes over the Gulf and will hit Mexico again near Veracruz on the country's eastern Gulf Coast as a Category 3 hurricane. The port of Veracruz has been closed as of yesterday morning. It is quite possible that the effects of the storm may be felt even more here than anywhere else in Mexico, as mudslides and flooding here could be devastating.

Regards and best wishes to all in the path of this storm,

Suzan Haskins
Editor, Mexico Insider
International Living

P.S. We'll continue to report on Dean's passage. Stay tuned. If this e-mail message has been forwarded to you, read Monday's report on Hurricane Dean preparations here and find Mexico First Alerts archive here. And sign up for our free Mexico First Alerts service here.